Mines Probability Calculator

Stake Mines runs on a 5×5 grid (25 tiles). You place 1–24 bombs, then reveal tiles one by one — each safe pick multiplies your payout. This tool computes the exact combinatorial payout, survival probability, and expected value for any combination of bombs and gems collected. Uses the standard provably-fair Mines formula with a 1% house edge.

Result

Enter bombs and gems to see exact multiplier, survival probability, and expected value.

The math (provably-fair Mines)

Survival probability after g gem picks with b bombs: P = ∏(safe_i / remaining_i) for i = 0..g-1, which simplifies to C(25−b, g) / C(25, g).
Fair payout (no house edge): 1 / P — i.e. the inverse of survival probability.
Casino payout: fair × (1 − HE) where HE ≈ 1% on Stake.
Expected value: EV = bet × (payout × P − 1) — always slightly negative due to house edge.

Optimal strategy notes

The house edge is constant — picking more gems doesn't change EV per dollar. What changes is variance. Picking 1 gem with 3 bombs is near-certain (~88%) for a tiny multiplier. Picking 5 gems with 3 bombs is ~56% — bigger multiplier, more bust risk. Picking 10 gems with 3 bombs is ~22%. Match the variance to your bankroll, not your hopes.

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